Gun sales in Colorado-- debunked...

[guegreen]

Just got off the phone with Joe Clayton-- He's the Colorado Bureau of Investigation Agent in Charge overseeing Colorado's InstaCheck gun program.

According to his statistics, gun sales in 2008 are running a stunning 6.25% ahead of the annualized rate of 2007. Gun sales have been relatively flat for the past three years.

Is a 6.25% increase guns flying off the shelves? Or once again, are a few instances being confused with a large delta in trend?

Flame-away, fact-free folk....

[chad23]

I just got back from sportsmans warehouse in loveland and they are almost sold out of all their gun. Wait list for ar15 is 6-9 month at. They had maybe 20 handguns left. The wall was all but empty of display guns. Kelli says they are up 200%+ on gun sales. So your facts are from a phone call and mine are from me seeing it. Now mine is local and I would like to see the sales at other store but would bet they are the same or real close. Call around and see what the stores are saying.

[Nick_Ninja]

After reading some of these posts on the perceived increase in gun sales it seems that a few folks here on this board would go over the edge if gun control became a reality under the administration elect. This is cheap entertainment, keep it coming. :D

[Rhino]

Just got off the phone with Joe Clayton-- He's the Colorado Bureau of Investigation Agent in Charge overseeing Colorado's InstaCheck gun program.

According to his statistics, gun sales in 2008 are running a stunning 6.25% ahead of the annualized rate of 2007. Gun sales have been relatively flat for the past three years.

Is a 6.25% increase guns flying off the shelves? Or once again, are a few instances being confused with a large delta in trend?

Flame-away, fact-free folk....


Well hell tough guy, I'll do some internet wrasslin with ya!

So, you're comparing all of 2007 to current 2008? Wouldn't it seem that there would have been a slow down up to this point in the year of 08 due to high gas prices, bad economy, so less people were buying? In essence, had O not won, we could have posted a lower sales number for 08?

And of the guns I've bought in the last few years, several never crossed the wires of CBI. But as soon as Stag gets caught up, I'll be running 3 that I ordered online at smoking prices back in October because I ordered from a dealer/online.

I'm sure if you compare November 2008 to...well any other month in a long time I'm sure the gun sales numbers are spiking.

I'm waiting for my insult Mr. Gooey. :wait:

[guegreen]

I just got back from sportsmans warehouse in loveland and they are almost sold out of all their gun. Wait list for ar15 is 6-9 month at. They had maybe 20 handguns left. The wall was all but empty of display guns. Kelli says they are up 200%+ on gun sales. So your facts are from a phone call and mine are from me seeing it. Now mine is local and I would like to see the sales at other store but would bet they are the same or real close. Call around and see what the stores are saying.



My facts are from talking with a CBI agent-- in charge of gun checks statewide-- on the record. Are you suggesting that the CBI is lying or otherwise deliberately misstating their required by statute record keeping?
If so, I'd love to interview you on the record...

[rforsythe]

A guy here at work is trying to buy a Springfield XD right now and they're sold out. I guess he's going to try the first-in-line method next week when the store gets another shipment in.

I don't know about the CBI's stats, but when stores can't keep the shelves stocked that rather speaks for itself. It could also mean that a 6-7% increase in sales is enough to wipe out a store's inventory, but I suspect the actual sales rate at the more popular shops is higher. The CBI stat is statewide, but I'd be interested to see how it breaks down by county or city.

[guegreen]

Well hell tough guy, I'll do some internet wrasslin with ya!

So, you're comparing all of 2007 to current 2008? Wouldn't it seem that there would have been a slow down up to this point in the year of 08 due to high gas prices, bad economy, so less people were buying? In essence, had O not won, we could have posted a lower sales number for 08?

And of the guns I've bought in the last few years, several never crossed the wires of CBI. But as soon as Stag gets caught up, I'll be running 3 that I ordered online at smoking prices back in October because I ordered from a dealer/online.

I'm sure if you compare November 2008 to...well any other month in a long time I'm sure the gun sales numbers are spiking.

I'm waiting for my insult Mr. Gooey. :wait:
Yep, absolutely, would expect some demand destruction with the crappy economy. However, I seem to recall some stats showing firearm demand, like booze and cigarettes, being somewhat recession resistant. But on the whole, 6.25% boost with an overall decrease in durable good purchases seems impressive. Not run away, but indicative of something, but not running much ahead of population increase. By the way, that increase is roughly ten thousand sales -- one for every .002 Coloradans -- so again, definitely not a mass consumer phenomenom.

I'll try to get the CBI to give me a by county breakdown.

And thanks, I was running out of story ideas this month. My new intern is going to love crunching gun stats.

[Shea]

YTD September 2007 108,871 checks
YTD September 2008 124,127 checks +14%

http://cbi.state.co.us/ic/Statistics/2008stats/September%202008%20Firearm%20Stats.pdf

So, one could assume that gun sales (due to the Obamafication of America) have increased not decreased.

[Devaclis]

Do checks = purchases?

What if 3% of those were felons and denied purchase?

What if 25 of them decided to back out of the purchase after the check?

I do not think that background check = 100% sale.

Argue on misinformed.

[Shea]

Do checks = purchases?

What if 3% of those were felons and denied purchase?

What if 25 of them decided to back out of the purchase after the check?

I do not think that background check = 100% sale.

Argue on misinformed.

Those are approved checks. Denied checks for 2007/08 were 3.01% and 2.92% (of the totals) respectively. I would speculate that checks and purchases are fairly close to being 1:1. Don't know about you but I don't like to have gun background checks for the hell of it.

...of course Dana just likes to mess with gov'ment stats whenever he can :)

[Devaclis]

I create government statistics for gits and shiggles.

[guegreen]

More factoids from the CBI--

All-time record sales day was Saturday -- 1831 background checks --- usual volume is about 300. Big point for the hysteria buying crowd there.

Also, the CBI doesn't compile data based on locality - so no county or city data.

Also, when a purchase is done on-line, the check is done by the FBI -- and Federal Firearms Licensee's-- FFL --home state, not the buyer's, governs the criteria in the background check. For example, the CBI will check against Colorado restraining orders, but that wouldn't apply in a purchase from a dealer in a state without a similar requirement. I'm guessing that the Commerce clause would prevent Colorado from enforcing a similar standard upon an out-of-state FFL.


Still, a couple of thousand purchases (the November boost) is small potatoes in a state of 4.7 million folk. Big delta though, 600% increase on one day.
Lance Clem at CBI says there's big seasonality in gun purchases, the biggest day most years is the day after Thanksgiving.

[Rhino]

Yep, absolutely, would expect some demand destruction with the crappy economy. However, I seem to recall some stats showing firearm demand, like booze and cigarettes, being somewhat recession resistant. But on the whole, 6.25% boost with an overall decrease in durable good purchases seems impressive. Not run away, but indicative of something, but not running much ahead of population increase. By the way, that increase is roughly ten thousand sales -- one for every .002 Coloradans -- so again, definitely not a mass consumer phenomenom.

I'll try to get the CBI to give me a by county breakdown.

And thanks, I was running out of story ideas this month. My new intern is going to love crunching gun stats.

Hey! I want an intern too!

Why don't you show a bunch of pictures so we simpletons can understand. A side by side comparison:

2007 vs. 2008
DJIA
Gas prices
Economy & unemployment
Property Values/Equity to draw from
Commodities i.e. steel, copper, lead leading to: Price of ammo

If you want to do an interest piece, how about the idea that now the big stores like Sears, Kmart, and now Walmart have stopped guns sales (in most areas). How many people are too afraid to go into an "Evil Gun Shop" or even know where they are for that matter. Ask "the man/woman on the street" if they even know where to buy a gun outside of Tanner or Sportsmans/Gander. Of the "gun shops" I can think of, most are tucked away and rather nondescript.

Here's something I heard from a clerk that maybe you can verify in your next call to CBI. He stated that 6 out of 10 people who tried to buy guns at Walmart were turned down on the check. He also noted that many walked away after being handed the paperwork, as they apparently didn't think Wally did background checks.

[rybo]

By the way, that increase is roughly ten thousand sales -- one for every .002 Coloradans -- so again, definitely not a mass consumer phenomenom.

I'll try to get the CBI to give me a by county breakdown.



It depends on the ACTUAL timeframe the increase has taken place in. If the increase is over the course of the year (evenly distributed) I'd agree that it's not a mass consumer phenom, but if the increase is proportioned to the last 2-3 months, then I would say that is exactly what you have.

Sales / time is going to be an indicator or the market overall. Sure alcohol and cigarettes are pretty recession proof, they may even see a boost in sales during economic downturns. Another item to track would be lottery ticket sales, which I suspect see a jump in sales during hard economic times. Firearms probably fall into this category. When people feel unstable (powerless) they seek to take control of something, or to be able to defend something they already have. They do things they percieve as reducing stress (drinking / smoking), and they take larger chances with what money they have (buying a lottery ticket is only $1.00, but the rate of return SUCKS) as the perception that other kinds of investments (401K in the tank, stocks plunging in value, banks closing) are far worse.

It's an interesting set of circumstances and I look forward to your final results.

s

[Devaclis]

Do you have to have a background check for each gun purchased? What if you purchased 12 at one time?

[Rhino]

More factoids from the CBI--

All-time record sales day was Saturday -- 1831 background checks --- usual volume is about 300. Big point for the hysteria buying crowd there.

Also, the CBI doesn't compile data based on locality - so no county or city data.

Also, when a purchase is done on-line, the check is done by the FBI -- and Federal Firearms Licensee's-- FFL --home state, not the buyer's, governs the criteria in the background check. For example, the CBI will check against Colorado restraining orders, but that wouldn't apply in a purchase from a dealer in a state without a similar requirement. I'm guessing that the Commerce clause would prevent Colorado from enforcing a similar standard upon an out-of-state FFL.


Still, a couple of thousand purchases (the November boost) is small potatoes in a state of 4.7 million folk. Big delta though, 600% increase on one day.
Lance Clem at CBI says there's big seasonality in gun purchases, the biggest day most years is the day after Thanksgiving.

Do they do break downs by type of firearm? I'm sure the increase isn't in .38 revolvers. The after-Thanksgiving guns up to now were more than likely hunting items. Again, I'm sure the current craze isn't for 28" 12 gauge for turkey, but rather AR-15's and semi-auto pistols with "high capacity".

[Shea]

Also, when a purchase is done on-line, the check is done by the FBI -- and Federal Firearms Licensee's-- FFL --home state, not the buyer's, governs the criteria in the background check. For example, the CBI will check against Colorado restraining orders, but that wouldn't apply in a purchase from a dealer in a state without a similar requirement. I'm guessing that the Commerce clause would prevent Colorado from enforcing a similar standard upon an out-of-state FFL.


If you buy online you must ship it to a registered FFL here in Colorado. When I bought my two weapons online, when I went to pick them up, they ran me through CBI.

[Shea]

Do they do break downs by type of firearm? I'm sure the increase isn't in .38 revolvers. The after-Thanksgiving guns up to now were more than likely hunting items. Again, I'm sure the current craze isn't for 28" 12 gauge for turkey, but rather AR-15's and semi-auto pistols with "high capacity".

Follow the link to their stat website.

[guegreen]

Hey! I want an intern too!

Why don't you show a bunch of pictures so we simpletons can understand. A side by side comparison:

2007 vs. 2008
DJIA
Gas prices
Economy & unemployment
Property Values/Equity to draw from
Commodities i.e. steel, copper, lead leading to: Price of ammo


Units? You want real dollar % deltas? Not sure where to get the ammo data. Certainly could home values, equity taps. Scaling is going to be a bitch. I hadn't considered the commodity/ammo bit. Though I'm guessing ammo manufacturers hedge their raw material cost. Pretty cool selection of factors....

[Shea]

Colorado:
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_10910395

National:
http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=6209255

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24628337-12377,00.html

[Scribbler]

Given the axiom that gun sales are up because Obama got elected (which I kinda doubt, I think it's more an effect of the economy being down vs who got elected), a 6% increase in sales actually IS a substantial increase.

Any small business who's 6% ahead of previous year's sales are usually pretty happy.

Aside from that though, I would say that Colorado probably isn't the best demographic in which to judge. Aside from individual cases (some here on this forum even), Colorado as a whole is actually sitting pretty well compared to many other states, both economically and politically. Most Coloradoans are pretty content relative to conditions and circumstances in several other states.

You'd be better off observing a survey of the whole country vs just one state which happens to be at one extreme end of the spectrum.

[Rhino]

Follow the link to their stat website.


Units? You want real dollar % deltas? Not sure where to get the ammo data. Certainly could home values, equity taps. Scaling is going to be a bitch. I hadn't considered the commodity/ammo bit. Though I'm guessing ammo manufacturers hedge their raw material cost. Pretty cool selection of factors....


Well, the best way to show the DJIA would be to overlay them. That way the fall from 14k is identifiable.

Ammo has basically tripled in the last 5 years. Copper for example went from mid $1 to $4/lb. Lead too. As far as hedging, many local plumbing companies weren't able to figure for that much of an increase, as most jobs are bid over 1 year ahead. I don't know of anyone who predicted that rise, but then again, who predicted gas at $150/barrel? Most people stopped buying gas guzzlers when gas was $4. Likewise, I'm sure many shooters had to make the choice of a new gun or ammo for existing. It also caused a lot of the "surplus" to dry up. Somehow, people still had South African and German Nato ammo from the 1970's.

Gixxer2k, I hit the PDF and only saw "handguns and longuns".

[Sortarican]

If firearms sales, especially suggested bannable ones like semi-autos and pistols, where so far up why is S&W's stock tanking?

Also, retail outlets are panicing over the economey.
I'm betting shortages are due to keeping their inventory stock down to the bare bones.
Inventory costs on firearms are huge since the cost is high and the markup is relatively small compaired to other sporting goods.
I was offered a job by Gart's and checked the 10% over employee pricing perk and on guns it saved like %5 off the normal price. (= 15% profit margin.)


. I would speculate that checks and purchases are fairly close to being 1:1. Don't know about you but I don't like to have gun background checks for the hell of it.

I'd agree, who pays $10-$20 for the check just to take a pass on it?


All-time record sales day was Saturday -- 1831 background checks --- usual volume is about 300. Big point for the hysteria buying crowd there.

Gun show in town? Always a huge incease during the Tanner.


Do you have to have a background check for each gun purchased? What if you purchased 12 at one time?

I think it's one check=as many firearms as you want in the next (72?) hrs or so.
(Though I've never personally bought more than 3 at a time.)

[The Black Knight]

Just got off the phone with Joe Clayton-- He's the Colorado Bureau of Investigation Agent in Charge overseeing Colorado's InstaCheck gun program.

According to his statistics, gun sales in 2008 are running a stunning 6.25% ahead of the annualized rate of 2007. Gun sales have been relatively flat for the past three years.

Is a 6.25% increase guns flying off the shelves? Or once again, are a few instances being confused with a large delta in trend?

Flame-away, fact-free folk....
Well I just got off the phone with a good friend of mine, who just got done talking to his cousin who is back in town from Missouri and he stopped along the way at several Sportsmans Warehouses's and other sporting goods stores.

He concurs the same thing that the rest of us our seeing as well with our "OWN" eyes. He said the stores in Missouri were all out of AR15's, Semi-auto pistols and tactical shotguns.

Also how is it in the news around the nation that gun shops are reporting sales figures of over $100K a day???

Look we get that you're well connected and have friends in high places and that you're a former James Bond type. But come on 007 we aren't stupid and people believe what their eyes are seeing. Unless you're insisting that Gun Stores are actually hiding their inventory as to make it seem that they are low??

So regardless of what you're CBI agent said(if he's for real) I'm going on what Gun Store owners are saying. When I go into a store and they have close to 80 guns waiting for background approval, something is up. When they run out of AK47's(and believe the one gun store I was in does keep alot on hand), AR15's are flying out the door. Ammo is down to nothing, especially when he has AMMO by the pallets sitting in the middle of the store and they're empty. It leads me to believe that you've just got a good line of BS but that's all it amounts to is BS.

By the way, Jack Ryan and Jason Bourne just called they need the green light on a black ops mission but said you had crucial intel on the enemies last known position. Something about logistics, map location, coordinates and dossiers. I don't know, I wasn't really paying attention but said I'd forward you the message. So if you can tear yourself away from running the country I'm sure they'd be glad to hear back from you.
:doublefinger:

[dirkterrell]

Just came across this:

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/17964813/detail.html#-

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/2008/nov/11/gun-permits-spike-in-boulder-county/

Dirk

[CaptGoodvibes]

The gun store shelves and racks are as empty right now as supermarket shelves in California after a 6.0+ earthquake.

I've seen both with my own eyes and that was my first impression. Panic? Maybe maybe not.

[The Black Knight]

Just came across this:

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/17964813/detail.html#-

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/2008/nov/11/gun-permits-spike-in-boulder-county/

Dirk

"Last month, there were 62,000 more background checks of gun purchases than in October 2007, according to the FBI."

I'd consider that a spike wouldn't you Dirk?? Don't know where Mr. 007 is getting his info but he isn't correlating what we see, hear and read about.

[The Black Knight]

By the way, for those of you in the Colorado Springs, Pueblo, Monument areas(maybe even Castle Rock) KRDO News 13 is doing a special tonight @ 10PM on Gun Sales. I'm going to stay up and watch it(caught the small bit of it they showed at 5pm), looks interesting.