I agree with you on Olivera. He's very fast and has seemed to figured out the KTM. Always thought Binder would have emerged as the main guy but Olivera seems to be the one at the moment. I think Marquez was a bit of a one off for him at Sachsenring. He's never lost there and I think that was extra motivation. Not sure how he is going to go at other tracks, especially with the right arm not 100% and the Honda not really developed at this point.
For me, Yamaha is doing what Yamaha always do. Come apart like a cheap watch. If Fabio can manage a few more wins this year and keep getting podiums or top 4-5's, then I think he's going to get the title. I think Olivera is coming for him though, and I think a few others are as well. Vinales just looked lost again. He's dominant in one race and is no where to be found in the next. He's unpredictable and not consistent. Rossi was second fastest M1 and was 22 seconds from the winner, but 16 seconds from Quatararo. That's not great but not entirely bad either. Morbidelli and Vinales were both 24 seconds off and last. Yamaha looked bad this weekend but Fabio managed it.
I think Beaubier is finding out the hard way just how fast the world level elite really are. He is doing very well but he went from winning by a country mile in MotoAmerica to getting spanked by the Moto2 crowd. Gerloff is doing better in WSBK but not that much. He's getting there but he's far from Rea, Toprak, Redding and a few others. He will get there sooner I think. Beaubier has a massive learning curve still.
Roll on Assen GP and then let's see what surprises the Summer break has in store...