My HONDA theory is simple. I think Marquez for all his great wins and sliding/loose style can't help develop the bike. Honda has done pretty well especially when Marquez came on scene because of all the R&D that had been done in the past. He was on the best bike because of the electronics and other things. That work now has been diluted over the years and now the changes and updates to the bike don't fit the old R&D.
How in the hell is Honda supposed to collect any data with all the sliding and spinning and crazy stuff that Marquez does. Plus Honda is so arrogant they just thought they were so good that no one could catch up.
So that's my theory. Honda has no data to R&D anything. They just throw shit at the wall so to speak. Now they are heading down the road that Ducati went down in the Stoner era. They have a bike that maybe one guy has a chance to win on. When that guy leaves they are back at square one with R&D and they will be looking at years of rebuilding a race winning machine.
On a side note there was an article I read about AStars was trying to collect some data from MM's knee slider and had a sensor in there to record info. They couldn't collect much info because as they reported he doesn't use a lot of knee pressure because he is so balanced on the bike. Crazy to think with all the sliding and extreme lean angles. That guy is crazy talented.
As far as JLo I'm not sure I agree that he will get better. In the past he hasn't handled frustration very well. He is trying to change the bike to suit him and he may not be the correct guy for the bike. I bet Stoner is faster on the bike if they did a time trial today just because Stoner could ride around the problems. I'm not a Stoner the moaner fan but damn the guy was fast on a terrible bike.
Anyway it's fun to see if my predictions come true. I'm really interested to see how the Honda's perform at COTA.